Ledger / Prediction #2371 · narrative · 24H

Will "tail" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2226 launches in the last hour referenced "tail" (16 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-12 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -3.025635421661666,
      "diversity": -0.39473684210526316
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13492758263534838
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tail",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0008389261744966443,
    "share60": 0.01728783116299955,
    "total15": 595,
    "total60": 2226,
    "momentum": 0.04852697637932537,
    "diversity": 0.42105263157894735,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9970811111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998783796296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13492758263534838
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.145

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000655780706931602,
  "shareRatio": 0.5762323102246073,
  "totalAfter": 45747,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011457841881782032,
  "totalBefore": 44511,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "tail" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.07% (-43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tail" (24H). momentum contributed -3.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash55e9715b27f1cf12edc4f473ada8a898bff95c6ff777693925f97dcafa037ff7

Previous hash4c47f5d4ce296d24d0c4bec55a8e84a6e996d6169ac91f3c9a03e822c0b797be