Ledger / Prediction #237 · token · 1H

Will $Simpsons still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6CD85vG3zs5LjUqzDf5QPrc38z3nvmZv2eg6gukEUbyT",
    "name": "TheSimpsons",
    "symbol": "Simpsons",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 49,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 391889.07027158636,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 846,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.784

Log loss2.166

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T16:43:42.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1990.862226263222,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 436986.92718076945,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 391889.07027158636,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 783778.1405431727
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $Simpsons would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $1,991, graduated). INCORRECT.

— twitter was right but too weak on $Simpsons (1H). twitter contributed +0.40 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on $Simpsons (1H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

— Overconfident: 89% and wrong on $Simpsons. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

3 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7fcabd1da474bc39069df4f1439de29fcd70ef03fd08ec39b2f1326a059dc730

Previous hash61075ae936959134fa6b541259de10f2c97c44a185d09860ae14fffdb354f0bf