Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2226 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (42 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.5827887610010292,
      "diversity": 0.2720930232558139
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42762395795120145
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.010906040268456376,
    "share60": 0.01953300404131118,
    "total15": 595,
    "total60": 2226,
    "momentum": 0.5583391190310885,
    "diversity": 0.9767441860465116,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9970811111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995135185185186
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42762395795120145
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011189854531891086,
  "shareRatio": 0.6970449948317528,
  "totalAfter": 16086,
  "shareBefore": 0.016050907018710227,
  "totalBefore": 10529,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 180,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 169
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity