Ledger / Prediction #2362 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
105 of 2226 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (57 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.12×.
Made2026-10-12 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.45667836565851344,
"momentum": 0.10944659310748409,
"diversity": -0.2485714285714286
},
"rawProbability": 0.5043882698707296
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.05285234899328859,
"share60": 0.047373147732375394,
"total15": 595,
"total60": 2226,
"momentum": 1.1156604853843952,
"diversity": 0.5428571428571428,
"launches15": 31,
"launches60": 105,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 57
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 316,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9970811111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9970811111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5043882698707296
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.246
Log loss0.684
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.05104602510460251,
"shareRatio": 1.0742259215406758,
"totalAfter": 2390,
"shareBefore": 0.047491039426523295,
"totalBefore": 2232,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 122,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 106
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 50% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.75% → 5.10% (+7%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9f4c55854e9a1f07889de010cdd73a1a53cb089b815ca37abdeb6919e11a2a05Previous hash
c106ea75ee67e98ea4ece1b1b75a16f9766162ea77483b21a79755f58322b380