Will "refuses" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2579 launches in the last hour referenced "refuses" (3 distinct creators, rank #411). Last 15m momentum 2.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.8888468633000761,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5488914755995739
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "refuses",
    "rank60": 411,
    "share15": 0.005185185185185185,
    "share60": 0.002131782945736434,
    "total15": 674,
    "total60": 2579,
    "momentum": 2.4323232323232324,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 362,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990603240740741
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5488914755995739
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002602641681306526,
  "shareRatio": 0.47968770331815225,
  "totalAfter": 15369,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005697078212745178,
  "totalBefore": 12287,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity