Ledger / Prediction #2354 · narrative · 24H

Will "meats" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1918 launches in the last hour referenced "meats" (31 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -3.3363461487901342,
      "diversity": -0.14081632653061218
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13384255430532255
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "meats",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.0009174311926605505,
    "share60": 0.02579468473163106,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 1918,
    "momentum": 0.03556667593364841,
    "diversity": 0.6326530612244898,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996461111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999852546296296
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13384255430532255
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.144

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0000652954619653934,
  "shareRatio": 0.06157847045814053,
  "totalAfter": 45945,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012257405515832482,
  "totalBefore": 44055,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "meats" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.01% (-95%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "meats" (24H). momentum contributed -3.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash43adb00adec29a9ba9a8d4fce7c25472a7e36b45171135ac0e235ce2e59aac3d

Previous hashcba702c004aa1ba13c1ca6c1c40f942e8e5f84c57393d2152f0fcc9a962ae85f