Will "chaosbuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1918 launches in the last hour referenced "chaosbuck" (36 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -2.4047879447851908,
      "diversity": -0.15517241379310343
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13768920896822717
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chaosbuck",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0027522935779816515,
    "share60": 0.030484627410109433,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 1918,
    "momentum": 0.09028463890849212,
    "diversity": 0.6206896551724138,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996461111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999410185185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13768920896822717
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006299212598425197,
  "shareRatio": 0.016217028121790027,
  "totalAfter": 15875,
  "shareBefore": 0.005776892430278884,
  "totalBefore": 10040,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity