Ledger / Prediction #2345 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

89 of 1918 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (15 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.75×.

Made2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43187976859470595,
      "momentum": 0.5600242652358408,
      "diversity": -0.697752808988764
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49853781037867934
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.081651376146789,
    "share60": 0.046638874413757164,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 1918,
    "momentum": 1.7507149812926044,
    "diversity": 0.16853932584269662,
    "launches15": 44,
    "launches60": 89,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996461111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996461111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49853781037867934
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.249

Log loss0.690

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.029117774880486745,
  "shareRatio": 0.6296929073091652,
  "totalAfter": 2301,
  "shareBefore": 0.0463300364393545,
  "totalBefore": 1921,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.63% → 2.91% (-37%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.70 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6712b13891eeee764b906de39dc2c8a934cd338744aba4c68f916e5d0f05dc8b

Previous hash5839adb7c5968654464d5addec0cefd71e0dba260f87fec0cea8882be167346d