Ledger / Prediction #2340 · narrative · 24H
Will "wired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "wired" (7 distinct creators, rank #149). Last 15m momentum 2.17×.
Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 0.7768368293412513,
"diversity": 0.03333333333333335
},
"rawProbability": 0.5372232733439267
},
"features": {
"term": "wired",
"rank60": 149,
"share15": 0.011178861788617886,
"share60": 0.005140692640692641,
"total15": 491,
"total60": 1847,
"momentum": 2.1745827984595634,
"diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 216,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99406,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997525
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5372232733439267
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 12:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.214
Log loss0.621
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0006284674063800278,
"shareRatio": 1.8092709167106489,
"totalAfter": 46144,
"shareBefore": 0.0003419504855696895,
"totalBefore": 43866,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 15
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "wired" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.03% → 0.06% (+84%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "wired" (24H). momentum contributed +0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f8a7e3d2575c6030cc6ba24fccb149a3c048e6662786b53b1072354e79b89848Previous hash
a8792ba63d33d7811abf047811c4a5726424829efc50e5a1cc6c90b72c36827c