GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2340 · narrative · 24H

Will "wired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "wired" (7 distinct creators, rank #149). Last 15m momentum 2.17×.

Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.7768368293412513,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5372232733439267
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wired",
    "rank60": 149,
    "share15": 0.011178861788617886,
    "share60": 0.005140692640692641,
    "total15": 491,
    "total60": 1847,
    "momentum": 2.1745827984595634,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99406,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997525
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5372232733439267
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.214
Log loss0.621
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006284674063800278,
  "shareRatio": 1.8092709167106489,
  "totalAfter": 46144,
  "shareBefore": 0.0003419504855696895,
  "totalBefore": 43866,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "wired" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.03% → 0.06% (+84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "wired" (24H). momentum contributed +0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf8a7e3d2575c6030cc6ba24fccb149a3c048e6662786b53b1072354e79b89848
Previous hasha8792ba63d33d7811abf047811c4a5726424829efc50e5a1cc6c90b72c36827c