Ledger / Prediction #234 · narrative · 6H

Will "quoted" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 2579 launches in the last hour referenced "quoted" (88 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.74×.

Made2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": 1.3179738489670831,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7565231151707272
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quoted",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.12814814814814815,
    "share60": 0.03430232558139535,
    "total15": 674,
    "total60": 2579,
    "momentum": 3.7358443188951664,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 86,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 88
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 362,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990603240740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7565231151707272
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.572

Log loss1.413

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004466365952682982,
  "totalAfter": 15369,
  "shareBefore": 0.00724342801334744,
  "totalBefore": 12287,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "quoted" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "quoted" (6H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "quoted". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash744d40dde9ddee6b7c442afbbaac08f949f7702684878fde8231be29a290432f

Previous hash445d5af0adc4c3c419e78789531c2eff473a969d04c855cb05b9c2cbfc417b58