Ledger / Prediction #2339 · narrative · 24H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
54 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (32 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.34×.
Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35693192011952607,
"momentum": 1.2067436319835603,
"diversity": -0.1888888888888889
},
"rawProbability": 0.5956550397754817
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.09857723577235772,
"share60": 0.029491341991341992,
"total15": 491,
"total60": 1847,
"momentum": 3.3425822331617807,
"diversity": 0.5925925925925926,
"launches15": 48,
"launches60": 54,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 216,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99406,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997525
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5956550397754817
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 12:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.355
Log loss0.906
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006371359223300971,
"shareRatio": 0.6689645762351364,
"totalAfter": 46144,
"shareBefore": 0.009529020197875347,
"totalBefore": 43866,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 294,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 418
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "read" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.95% → 0.64% (-33%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "read" (24H). momentum contributed +1.21 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a8792ba63d33d7811abf047811c4a5726424829efc50e5a1cc6c90b72c36827cPrevious hash
2b83c4b5646e3a4491e4f05284dde211cec43beb4ea8d8ce553500132c7319e3