GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2339 · narrative · 24H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (32 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.34×.

Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": 1.2067436319835603,
      "diversity": -0.1888888888888889
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5956550397754817
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.09857723577235772,
    "share60": 0.029491341991341992,
    "total15": 491,
    "total60": 1847,
    "momentum": 3.3425822331617807,
    "diversity": 0.5925925925925926,
    "launches15": 48,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99406,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997525
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5956550397754817
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.355
Log loss0.906
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006371359223300971,
  "shareRatio": 0.6689645762351364,
  "totalAfter": 46144,
  "shareBefore": 0.009529020197875347,
  "totalBefore": 43866,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 294,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 418
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "read" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.95% → 0.64% (-33%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "read" (24H). momentum contributed +1.21 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha8792ba63d33d7811abf047811c4a5726424829efc50e5a1cc6c90b72c36827c
Previous hash2b83c4b5646e3a4491e4f05284dde211cec43beb4ea8d8ce553500132c7319e3