Ledger / Prediction #2335 · narrative · 6H

Will "style" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "style" (56 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -1.8629720974533193,
      "diversity": 0.22
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23340825980925897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "style",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.00508130081300813,
    "share60": 0.03273809523809524,
    "total15": 491,
    "total60": 1847,
    "momentum": 0.15521064301552107,
    "diversity": 0.9333333333333333,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 56
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99406,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99901
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23340825980925897
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.054

Log loss0.266

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0031608824667784803,
  "shareRatio": 0.41131710034332175,
  "totalAfter": 15502,
  "shareBefore": 0.007712082262210797,
  "totalBefore": 9725,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 49,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "style" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.77% → 0.32% (-59%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "style" (6H). momentum contributed -1.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb919420b5a6e5740f74deeef768207990a829b2aeee4429d315bb27fa71e9dc2

Previous hashb9a38b52887050e3127459aed65d24a342a144bd1f7a75d21f53c6593708b0db