Will "memecoiner" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
73 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoiner" (38 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.65×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40215322930714364,
"momentum": 1.2957925791904923,
"diversity": -0.2753424657534247
},
"rawProbability": 0.7544712904366907
},
"features": {
"term": "memecoiner",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.14532520325203252,
"share60": 0.03977272727272727,
"total15": 491,
"total60": 1847,
"momentum": 3.653890824622532,
"diversity": 0.5205479452054794,
"launches15": 71,
"launches60": 73,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 38
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 216,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99406,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.99406
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7544712904366907
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.005648116837420144,
"totalAfter": 2232,
"shareBefore": 0.03939557474365893,
"totalBefore": 1853,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 73
}Predicted 75% that "memecoiner" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.94% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "memecoiner" (1H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "memecoiner". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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