Will "protocol" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "protocol" (6 distinct creators, rank #215). Last 15m momentum 2.63×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.9678708169455813,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5860377752369158
},
"features": {
"term": "protocol",
"rank60": 215,
"share15": 0.00847457627118644,
"share60": 0.0032194155522535907,
"total15": 412,
"total60": 2018,
"momentum": 2.6323337679269883,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 216,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998579050925926
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5860377752369158
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0019725148480513287,
"shareRatio": 0.9927655792782054,
"totalAfter": 46134,
"shareBefore": 0.0019863920726973833,
"totalBefore": 43798,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 91,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 87
}Predicted 59% that "protocol" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.20% (-1%). PARTIAL.
— "protocol" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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