Will "graduates" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "graduates" (11 distinct creators, rank #53). Last 15m momentum 1.82×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": 0.5965113213239277,
      "diversity": -0.12352941176470583
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5398114852495969
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "graduates",
    "rank60": 53,
    "share15": 0.015738498789346248,
    "share60": 0.00866765725606736,
    "total15": 412,
    "total60": 2018,
    "momentum": 1.8157730888965755,
    "diversity": 0.6470588235294118,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994316203703704
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5398114852495969
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00013318239328760737,
  "shareRatio": 0.03039718034151898,
  "totalAfter": 15017,
  "shareBefore": 0.005423800914601723,
  "totalBefore": 9403,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity