Ledger / Prediction #2315 · narrative · 1H

Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (72 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -3.3898237170687695,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0012106537530266344,
    "share60": 0.0359088657751362,
    "total15": 412,
    "total60": 2018,
    "momentum": 0.03371461968773483,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 72
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965897222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00989068193649141,
  "shareRatio": 0.2832394416735441,
  "totalAfter": 1921,
  "shareBefore": 0.03559070687098369,
  "totalBefore": 2023,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "hello" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.56% → 0.99% (-72%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hello" (1H). momentum contributed -3.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash03089a6620be3f4336eae9aa780cb4099ab076eb67fe65e90557914870c8506e

Previous hash4a7227426393c70dbaba0fb8091eff48a8cd21559f294491945a61e797b86abf