Ledger / Prediction #2314 · narrative · 1H

Will "solwaifu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

76 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "solwaifu" (23 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4081943141778346,
      "momentum": -3.4435278960406306,
      "diversity": -0.5368421052631579
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "solwaifu",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0012106537530266344,
    "share60": 0.03789004457652303,
    "total15": 412,
    "total60": 2018,
    "momentum": 0.031951763756350005,
    "diversity": 0.3026315789473684,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 76,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965897222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.006882808621193883,
  "totalAfter": 1921,
  "shareBefore": 0.037567968363816116,
  "totalBefore": 2023,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "solwaifu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.76% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "solwaifu" (1H). momentum contributed -3.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4a7227426393c70dbaba0fb8091eff48a8cd21559f294491945a61e797b86abf

Previous hash7a4b7a68faa050587bdbe3aa2ed796f138bb785ff050e173d20296a8759b7922