Ledger / Prediction #2308 · narrative · 24H
Will "humanist" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 1839 launches in the last hour referenced "humanist" (6 distinct creators, rank #95). Last 15m momentum 4.37×.
Made2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 1.47488801692065,
"diversity": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.6160212579185745
},
"features": {
"term": "humanist",
"rank60": 95,
"share15": 0.020190023752969122,
"share60": 0.004619565217391305,
"total15": 420,
"total60": 1839,
"momentum": 4.370546318289787,
"diversity": 0.75,
"launches15": 8,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 176,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9987911111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999496296296296
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6160212579185745
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.379
Log loss0.957
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.000021570319240724762,
"shareRatio": 0.05303131739307559,
"totalAfter": 46360,
"shareBefore": 0.0005986093843532716,
"totalBefore": 43434,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 26
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "humanist" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.00% (-96%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "humanist" (24H). momentum contributed +1.47 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
54bce94cc24f36d21ba3182edf749a4594856c7df52427d3031019245822e608Previous hash
e8c737cb3eb2b036a9a15b6ac54a6d3ce28bf9f08cd5b4efdf75841d4a91bf02