GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2308 · narrative · 24H

Will "humanist" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1839 launches in the last hour referenced "humanist" (6 distinct creators, rank #95). Last 15m momentum 4.37×.

Made2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 1.47488801692065,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6160212579185745
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "humanist",
    "rank60": 95,
    "share15": 0.020190023752969122,
    "share60": 0.004619565217391305,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1839,
    "momentum": 4.370546318289787,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9987911111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999496296296296
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6160212579185745
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.379
Log loss0.957
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.000021570319240724762,
  "shareRatio": 0.05303131739307559,
  "totalAfter": 46360,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005986093843532716,
  "totalBefore": 43434,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "humanist" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.00% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "humanist" (24H). momentum contributed +1.47 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash54bce94cc24f36d21ba3182edf749a4594856c7df52427d3031019245822e608
Previous hashe8c737cb3eb2b036a9a15b6ac54a6d3ce28bf9f08cd5b4efdf75841d4a91bf02