Ledger / Prediction #2299 · narrative · 1H

Will "paired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1839 launches in the last hour referenced "paired" (84 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -3.6550106980024233,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paired",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0011876484560570072,
    "share60": 0.04592391304347826,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1839,
    "momentum": 0.02586122081828276,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 84
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9987911111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987911111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004856988667026443,
  "shareRatio": 0.11181963833196097,
  "totalAfter": 1853,
  "shareBefore": 0.04557786218122626,
  "totalBefore": 1843,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "paired" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.56% → 0.49% (-89%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paired" (1H). momentum contributed -3.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe7562fcc98aad0e7c3761263ace7e92a0517132f0c80c5ade197ed124ee9cac1

Previous hash0f26642fa41dc118cc822757457f949debea74d9bec28cad94fb5853840e7f6c