Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

154 of 1839 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (10 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5141272034969293,
      "momentum": -1.2139308222536727,
      "diversity": -0.8220779220779221
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13920825611532792
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mascot",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02494061757719715,
    "share60": 0.08396739130434783,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1839,
    "momentum": 0.2970274196895971,
    "diversity": 0.06493506493506493,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 154,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9987911111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987911111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13920825611532792
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002698327037236913,
  "shareRatio": 0.03540669522383162,
  "totalAfter": 1853,
  "shareBefore": 0.08355941399891481,
  "totalBefore": 1843,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 154
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity