Ledger / Prediction #2291 · narrative · 24H

Will "stealth" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "stealth" (14 distinct creators, rank #21). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -2.438521991835991,
      "diversity": -0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18598353064752868
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stealth",
    "rank60": 21,
    "share15": 0.0012406947890818859,
    "share60": 0.014213518635502211,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 0.0872897711607389,
    "diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997056365740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18598353064752868
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.035

Log loss0.206

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005977669136013322,
  "shareRatio": 0.6028056165333499,
  "totalAfter": 46841,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009977492632897882,
  "totalBefore": 43097,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "stealth" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.06% (-40%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "stealth" (24H). momentum contributed -2.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb62dc2161ed47e40723f348133339156ce5bd0afee59f3bb24aea5bd078beef9

Previous hash5d0638a6c51909dff40350067add26a83569ff9d644a7039770c2d91ea059261