Ledger / Prediction #2288 · narrative · 6H

Will "method" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "method" (3 distinct creators, rank #109). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.

Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.2412974144997713,
      "diversity": -0.38571428571428573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3310192830693309
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "method",
    "rank60": 109,
    "share15": 0.0037220843672456576,
    "share60": 0.004737839545167404,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 0.78560794044665,
    "diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988225462962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3310192830693309
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.110

Log loss0.402

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011000343760742524,
  "shareRatio": 0.5348530849012081,
  "totalAfter": 14545,
  "shareBefore": 0.0020637468470534283,
  "totalBefore": 8722,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "method" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.11% (-47%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "method" (6H). diversity contributed -0.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc7a083ae31cc0d9a29098c8489fdf7b21f5d4056edd7166ba08023131874d319

Previous hash6e15d2c1f22f46270c2c9e17e4dee352f962f56725c54d05d16a9e54b506014e