Will "overdrive" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "overdrive" (22 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -2.86596600666293,
      "diversity": -0.12352941176470583
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10052815464188007
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "overdrive",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0012406947890818859,
    "share60": 0.021794061907770057,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 0.05692811162656885,
    "diversity": 0.6470588235294118,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988225462962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10052815464188007
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006875214850464077,
  "shareRatio": 0.17251176711010321,
  "totalAfter": 14545,
  "shareBefore": 0.0041274936941068565,
  "totalBefore": 8722,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity