Ledger / Prediction #2286 · narrative · 6H
Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (8 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 3.06×.
Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": 1.1168260696534231,
"diversity": -0.66
},
"rawProbability": 0.5592502049661913
},
"features": {
"term": "mascot",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.07816377171215881,
"share60": 0.025584333543903978,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1582,
"momentum": 3.0551419906258617,
"diversity": 0.2,
"launches15": 31,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 201,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988225462962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5592502049661913
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.194
Log loss0.581
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.019869370917841182,
"shareRatio": 1.4288761239354757,
"totalAfter": 14545,
"shareBefore": 0.0138729649163036,
"totalBefore": 8722,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 289,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 121
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "mascot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.39% → 1.99% (+43%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "mascot" (6H). momentum contributed +1.12 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0bc9128b1380647cab70c8d7c5a208a75b061c4a6c4506d7e9b0e5a6f232450fPrevious hash
2e461e488fb97f91d293190e853b3758b53279c32b04e15cd87c1ac2ebb9db89