Ledger / Prediction #2285 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (24 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.
Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": -0.7359936563358783,
"diversity": -0.4278688524590164
},
"rawProbability": 0.2990023752693299
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.018610421836228287,
"share60": 0.03885028427037271,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1582,
"momentum": 0.4790292319796647,
"diversity": 0.39344262295081966,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 24
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 201,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988225462962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2990023752693299
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.491
Log loss1.207
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.041457545548298384,
"shareRatio": 1.318430419970362,
"totalAfter": 14545,
"shareBefore": 0.03141481311625774,
"totalBefore": 8722,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 603,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 274
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 30% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.14% → 4.15% (+32%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed -0.74 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2e461e488fb97f91d293190e853b3758b53279c32b04e15cd87c1ac2ebb9db89Previous hash
f5067c2df328cc2e862f761f32a91e48e0af5dd73b9b2671beef5bf0d397e1ae