Ledger / Prediction #2281 · narrative · 1H

Will "blackbox" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "blackbox" (25 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -3.4760465885242624,
      "diversity": -0.4238095238095238
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "blackbox",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0012406947890818859,
    "share60": 0.04011370814908402,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 0.03092944647427756,
    "diversity": 0.3968253968253968,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929352777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002471576866040534,
  "shareRatio": 0.06821294077370763,
  "totalAfter": 2023,
  "shareBefore": 0.03954802259887006,
  "totalBefore": 1593,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "blackbox" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.95% → 0.25% (-94%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "blackbox" (1H). momentum contributed -3.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd588ebef8c8c76850975ac3f8635d1c5a80be623f4fc66c0e2a8126de251a926

Previous hashc523be55d3a4afb43e27c208441a5616e476ed285eaa097b655b0b8258733d54