Ledger / Prediction #2267 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (40 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.78×.

Made2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.24711395195278915,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4219686274296778
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.031486146095717885,
    "share60": 0.0403125,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1599,
    "momentum": 0.7810516860953274,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957688888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4219686274296778
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.178

Log loss0.548

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.032013022246337494,
  "shareRatio": 0.8074206729556577,
  "totalAfter": 1843,
  "shareBefore": 0.03967761934283943,
  "totalBefore": 1613,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 59,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.97% → 3.20% (-19%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc8c96021bd18286657e83d5c1268d1b3aeeb617db47f0c87a4fbf92a0eff0454

Previous hash0f02b7eaabf9ed5b2414f03fe4daed9940aa78b28d340cf557070ab24350ce40