Ledger / Prediction #2266 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
66 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (27 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.42×.
Made2026-10-12 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3870325244388488,
"momentum": 0.35362110102898703,
"diversity": -0.40909090909090906
},
"rawProbability": 0.5078900240982759
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.05919395465994962,
"share60": 0.0415625,
"total15": 396,
"total60": 1599,
"momentum": 1.4242154504649533,
"diversity": 0.4090909090909091,
"launches15": 23,
"launches60": 66,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 203,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957688888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5078900240982759
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.258
Log loss0.709
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.015735214324470972,
"shareRatio": 0.3882781791789669,
"totalAfter": 1843,
"shareBefore": 0.04091754494730316,
"totalBefore": 1613,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 66
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.09% → 1.57% (-62%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0f02b7eaabf9ed5b2414f03fe4daed9940aa78b28d340cf557070ab24350ce40Previous hash
f7e858d7ec584de155c7f4ad8f4afabd15cac873c3b53fc546f24be034dca01e