GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2266 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (27 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.42×.

Made2026-10-12 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.35362110102898703,
      "diversity": -0.40909090909090906
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5078900240982759
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.05919395465994962,
    "share60": 0.0415625,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1599,
    "momentum": 1.4242154504649533,
    "diversity": 0.4090909090909091,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957688888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5078900240982759
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.258
Log loss0.709
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.015735214324470972,
  "shareRatio": 0.3882781791789669,
  "totalAfter": 1843,
  "shareBefore": 0.04091754494730316,
  "totalBefore": 1613,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.09% → 1.57% (-62%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0f02b7eaabf9ed5b2414f03fe4daed9940aa78b28d340cf557070ab24350ce40
Previous hashf7e858d7ec584de155c7f4ad8f4afabd15cac873c3b53fc546f24be034dca01e