Ledger / Prediction #2265 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

101 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (5 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45085239066107385,
      "momentum": -0.42287579003462494,
      "diversity": -0.8405940594059406
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24738323543425855
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.041561712846347604,
    "share60": 0.0634375,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1599,
    "momentum": 0.6551600054596667,
    "diversity": 0.04950495049504951,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 101,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957688888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24738323543425855
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.061

Log loss0.284

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05697232772653283,
  "shareRatio": 0.9008888418602189,
  "totalAfter": 1843,
  "shareBefore": 0.06323620582765034,
  "totalBefore": 1613,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 105,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 102
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.32% → 5.70% (-10%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.84 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf7e858d7ec584de155c7f4ad8f4afabd15cac873c3b53fc546f24be034dca01e

Previous hash758b9e33e1ae09ff9907ac6953c75fb0a23af1b1d8cf4c0f2a5a917cb421b249