Ledger / Prediction #226 · token · 6H

Will $JACKIE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "dog". Creator launched 8 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3CHVWKQmGHatdobEfYShxZ5n94HzPYDEyw14SUmDRhBe",
    "name": "Cooked Dog",
    "symbol": "JACKIE",
    "hotTerms": [
      "dog"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3601.8267044136505,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 8
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 799,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T15:45:18.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3067.660765235042,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4520.410791834815,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3601.8267044136505,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7203.653408827301
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $JACKIE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,068, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $JACKIE (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb58a499c30c7f9621ac7a376ea8a3a08274bdf373fb333cfe54e6240cb7849ff

Previous hashab5db4e001f1660663cb6440b75481196ce03990e405b15193d07cfeaea328d1