Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (29 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.7651739094384062,
      "diversity": -0.051219512195122
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36577470806207957
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.012,
    "share60": 0.02579241765071473,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.46525301204819275,
    "diversity": 0.7073170731707317,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999938738425926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36577470806207957
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009932442449014168,
  "shareRatio": 0.6576389004724456,
  "totalAfter": 47219,
  "shareBefore": 0.015107644888619064,
  "totalBefore": 42826,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 469,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 647
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity