Ledger / Prediction #2254 · narrative · 6H

Will "pool" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "pool" (21 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -1.1388125859348932,
      "diversity": -0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27002789699998714
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pool",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.006666666666666667,
    "share60": 0.020820385332504663,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.3201990049751244,
    "diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997549537037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27002789699998714
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.073

Log loss0.315

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022829312837683584,
  "shareRatio": 0.48401336284110724,
  "totalAfter": 13141,
  "shareBefore": 0.0047376935521146295,
  "totalBefore": 8654,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "pool" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.23% (-52%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pool" (6H). momentum contributed -1.14 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash41b7623e6e3d96f1e7e56700becc593de7fa18548984a37ba0b0b6a9996d3d90

Previous hashed51c9dcdca02ff69130fc064d17fbd256ab9c54ffd08921d2b88f8fab12ad41