Ledger / Prediction #2244 · narrative · 24H

Will "internet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "internet" (8 distinct creators, rank #40). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

Made2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -0.7599153570247856,
      "diversity": -0.42
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.31303128791631735
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "internet",
    "rank60": 40,
    "share15": 0.005567928730512249,
    "share60": 0.011904761904761904,
    "total15": 448,
    "total60": 1721,
    "momentum": 0.46770601336302897,
    "diversity": 0.4,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997184027777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.31303128791631735
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.098

Log loss0.375

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004605097148624779,
  "shareRatio": 0.6700594093865807,
  "totalAfter": 47556,
  "shareBefore": 0.006876642883965453,
  "totalBefore": 42608,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 219,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 293
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "internet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.69% → 0.46% (-33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "internet" (24H). momentum contributed -0.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasheb976347505b724aa4ae2057947847de982e4ac1a4a157b0c53c61fdb46c4fce

Previous hashc6c3e0324dfeb901f5fd2321c5ac63f429da9ffcb08270979f4dbc8aa66675a4