Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
50 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (8 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 3.30×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34538776394910686,
"momentum": 1.1950063990587463,
"diversity": -0.708
},
"rawProbability": 0.5290166297518973
},
"features": {
"term": "mascot",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.09688195991091314,
"share60": 0.02932636469221835,
"total15": 448,
"total60": 1721,
"momentum": 3.3035789102295534,
"diversity": 0.16,
"launches15": 43,
"launches60": 50,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 176,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997184027777778
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5290166297518973
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.012364370426444614,
"shareRatio": 3.039022246563641,
"totalAfter": 47556,
"shareBefore": 0.004060270371761172,
"totalBefore": 42608,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 588,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 173
}Predicted 53% that "mascot" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 1.24% (+205%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "mascot" (24H). momentum contributed +1.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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