GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2243 · narrative · 24H

Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (8 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 3.30×.

Made2026-10-12 09:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 09:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 1.1950063990587463,
      "diversity": -0.708
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5290166297518973
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mascot",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.09688195991091314,
    "share60": 0.02932636469221835,
    "total15": 448,
    "total60": 1721,
    "momentum": 3.3035789102295534,
    "diversity": 0.16,
    "launches15": 43,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997184027777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5290166297518973
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.222
Log loss0.637
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.012364370426444614,
  "shareRatio": 3.039022246563641,
  "totalAfter": 47556,
  "shareBefore": 0.004060270371761172,
  "totalBefore": 42608,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 588,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 173
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "mascot" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 1.24% (+205%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "mascot" (24H). momentum contributed +1.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc6c3e0324dfeb901f5fd2321c5ac63f429da9ffcb08270979f4dbc8aa66675a4
Previous hashdc8d4522fbd06b6576e78e836558f74ea58e83052e0010c3494526a127facb02