Ledger / Prediction #224 · narrative · 6H

Will "show" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "show" (4 distinct creators, rank #366). Last 15m momentum 2.37×.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.8628215621010991,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5856412104978329
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "show",
    "rank60": 366,
    "share15": 0.005426356589147287,
    "share60": 0.002289758534554538,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 2.3698379140239605,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994766666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5856412104978329
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.172

Log loss0.535

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015548069448043534,
  "shareRatio": 1.2709902093715726,
  "totalAfter": 15436,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012057531651020585,
  "totalBefore": 11611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "show" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.16% (+29%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "show" (6H). momentum contributed +0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash060bd3368505e336fd270e9b7be22caf987915061c783044dba31e383847cb95

Previous hash4f9de687d02926bd2553bd8cfca9e4286fce4f9afd7db3daeda80c0ed9e07d70