Ledger / Prediction #223 · narrative · 6H

Will "buttmoji" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "buttmoji" (30 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.72×.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.3148066858441563,
      "diversity": -0.24545454545454548
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6682599361820603
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "buttmoji",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.08604651162790698,
    "share60": 0.023105745212323066,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 3.724031007751938,
    "diversity": 0.5454545454545454,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994766666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6682599361820603
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.447

Log loss1.104

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027856957761078,
  "shareRatio": 0.464134939679328,
  "totalAfter": 15436,
  "shareBefore": 0.006028765825510292,
  "totalBefore": 11611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 43,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "buttmoji" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.60% → 0.28% (-54%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "buttmoji" (6H). momentum contributed +1.31 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4f9de687d02926bd2553bd8cfca9e4286fce4f9afd7db3daeda80c0ed9e07d70

Previous hash23be9208b7f2a583cbb76acf9609004554c69663ad7bfaac72d6a79e30cb11bd