Ledger / Prediction #2226 · narrative · 24H
Will "sai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
105 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "sai" (21 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.
Made2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.45667836565851344,
"momentum": 1.3407353133100017,
"diversity": -0.66
},
"rawProbability": 0.5667754084417786
},
"features": {
"term": "sai",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.2505938242280285,
"share60": 0.06556867619639528,
"total15": 420,
"total60": 1608,
"momentum": 3.8218527315914486,
"diversity": 0.2,
"launches15": 105,
"launches60": 105,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 184,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.995755,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999823125
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5667754084417786
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.321
Log loss0.837
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0004395788416050907,
"shareRatio": 0.16966941572124308,
"totalAfter": 47773,
"shareBefore": 0.0026406997854431426,
"totalBefore": 42413,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 21,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 112
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "sai" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.04% (-83%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "sai" (24H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
523f26b7278ffac06d7251616cbc4a0f08daa5c8bd4776147911127455feea70Previous hash
c3498513cfd03ce6a14a44f9322225c99c96b0f365f96b5c6cdecccfcf2f880f