Ledger / Prediction #2217 · narrative · 1H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

173 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (16 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

Made2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5315780523095518,
      "momentum": -0.16478404478317357,
      "diversity": -0.7890173410404625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32690357775169493
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.09144893111638955,
    "share60": 0.10783095090118086,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.8480768309295146,
    "diversity": 0.09248554913294797,
    "launches15": 38,
    "launches60": 173,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.995755,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.995755
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32690357775169493
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.107

Log loss0.396

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0028997218269320156,
  "totalAfter": 1611,
  "shareBefore": 0.1067242442936459,
  "totalBefore": 1621,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 173
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "read" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 10.67% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "read" (1H). diversity contributed -0.79 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha1cdf475776e89ce8951ab31a04adc3a5e65653aefc88478a9d8f07d1dc33855

Previous hashc306a4b13ba8b0090117119f8feeee64d04c80cf6172a6f032f5abdeea396174