Ledger / Prediction #2212 · narrative · 24H
Will "brain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "brain" (5 distinct creators, rank #135). Last 15m momentum 0.94×.
Made2026-10-12 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.06543310894137963,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.45444752299675245
},
"features": {
"term": "brain",
"rank60": 135,
"share15": 0.004098360655737705,
"share60": 0.004375497215592681,
"total15": 365,
"total60": 1256,
"momentum": 0.936661698956781,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 165,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979788888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999915787037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.45444752299675245
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.298
Log loss0.789
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002203742203742204,
"shareRatio": 1.0917152760073192,
"totalAfter": 48100,
"shareBefore": 0.0020162725051592854,
"totalBefore": 42157,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 106,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 85
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 45% that "brain" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.22% (+9%). PARTIAL.
— "brain" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a45760129c76d1b1ee63d22ffcd1bcee2e9e75968ece9a65b8e61022093ebcbdPrevious hash
57681bef244df44944d351e499f275977ed7377a4b2abee7fe1c0f513a655cc0