Ledger / Prediction #2211 · narrative · 24H

Will "dogeolo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "dogeolo" (16 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -1.5593581342536358,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26658220268958693
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dogeolo",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.004098360655737705,
    "share60": 0.01949085123309467,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1256,
    "momentum": 0.210270993643359,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979788888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999915787037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26658220268958693
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.071

Log loss0.310

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00004158004158004158,
  "shareRatio": 0.08943341582698651,
  "totalAfter": 48100,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005693004720449747,
  "totalBefore": 42157,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "dogeolo" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.00% (-93%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dogeolo" (24H). momentum contributed -1.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash57681bef244df44944d351e499f275977ed7377a4b2abee7fe1c0f513a655cc0

Previous hash18b9002b909c0e98117aee8f4d55c5285e469fd0079451042fe41cdbda9d4af1