Ledger / Prediction #221 · narrative · 6H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

151 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (97 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5111762886571235,
      "momentum": -0.685354052960905,
      "diversity": -0.12913907284768217
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3746494026092153
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.03178294573643411,
    "share60": 0.06307243963363864,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 0.5039117865274899,
    "diversity": 0.6423841059602649,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 151,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 97
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994766666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3746494026092153
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.140

Log loss0.469

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.048717284270536405,
  "shareRatio": 0.7142518211294957,
  "totalAfter": 15436,
  "shareBefore": 0.06821117905434501,
  "totalBefore": 11611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 752,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 792
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 6.82% → 4.87% (-29%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (6H). momentum contributed -0.69 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash64666724ffb2f73bbda107906dc8c70f05822b9caa02298cd71a1707e4fcaa12

Previous hash85923443228ae51cb03aa79922ddf2a68bc544bb2b126b3a58fd330a404759f2