Ledger / Prediction #2205 · narrative · 6H

Will "dandolo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "dandolo" (20 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -1.9016443407402686,
      "diversity": -0.1941176470588235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17282217546172607
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dandolo",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.004098360655737705,
    "share60": 0.027446300715990454,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1256,
    "momentum": 0.14932287954383464,
    "diversity": 0.5882352941176471,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979788888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996631481481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17282217546172607
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.030

Log loss0.190

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00017152658662092623,
  "shareRatio": 0.05198798422587866,
  "totalAfter": 11660,
  "shareBefore": 0.004064554692169755,
  "totalBefore": 8365,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "dandolo" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.02% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dandolo" (6H). momentum contributed -1.90 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfab6d764e22abfd579ca4250eea0381f0b4b1bb5b80f03f797661ed6beb5e22c

Previous hashf31daddf7fe1f9a2737bba16a29a20c373bd7054d17f7852e800c1bfac700e36