Ledger / Prediction #2204 · narrative · 1H

Will "goal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "goal" (5 distinct creators, rank #114). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.3310994822726556,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18186670474086356
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goal",
    "rank60": 114,
    "share15": 0.001366120218579235,
    "share60": 0.005171042163882259,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1256,
    "momentum": 0.26418663303909207,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979788888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979788888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18186670474086356
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.033

Log loss0.201

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002313475997686524,
  "shareRatio": 0.5042240995998222,
  "totalAfter": 1729,
  "shareBefore": 0.004765687053216839,
  "totalBefore": 1259,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "goal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.23% (-51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "goal" (1H). momentum contributed -1.33 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf31daddf7fe1f9a2737bba16a29a20c373bd7054d17f7852e800c1bfac700e36

Previous hash5446dc8527f616a1ee5493a89368532f95e5c99adaa8f9e333629813208b1ff8