Ledger / Prediction #2200 · token · 6H

Will $DREAM still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GBK5PLXPkPSkEQqEWumK66f54C2adxSrUqcosMPM1Jmu",
    "name": "DREAMTEAM",
    "symbol": "DREAM",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 123,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3148.226304758516,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3148.226304758516,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3148.226304758516,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6296.452609517032
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $DREAM would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,148, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DREAM (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash40b79f648762bde3506ac5a6a2abbbb11cc7e5bbaf55820d076399e216b5b077

Previous hash66e511ef7b9e3facd56c47560117c5c24f8fefacb1552f9c1ae451d9c4ae281a