Ledger / Prediction #2193 · narrative · 24H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (15 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.88×.

Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": 0.6331241575560265,
      "diversity": -0.20769230769230776
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5090903287028337
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03951890034364261,
    "share60": 0.02098178939034046,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 1.8834857031705894,
    "diversity": 0.5769230769230769,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 153,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924186111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996841087962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5090903287028337
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.241

Log loss0.675

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.026587367374005307,
  "shareRatio": 1.1682716319793398,
  "totalAfter": 48256,
  "shareBefore": 0.022754890514427317,
  "totalBefore": 41969,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1283,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 955
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "uxento" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.28% → 2.66% (+17%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (24H). momentum contributed +0.63 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaafe0aac49c724b656c31f620a3938482a183afcb17959bca62702279a8fb35f

Previous hashf37f149bf71f4a9409dcdf0a76f0cb9691926a821a7bde6f9ca600fa5f108d04