Ledger / Prediction #2192 · narrative · 6H

Will "open" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "open" (5 distinct creators, rank #170). Last 15m momentum 1.97×.

Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.6794644948147285,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.595229100230086
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "open",
    "rank60": 170,
    "share15": 0.00859106529209622,
    "share60": 0.00435471100554236,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 1.9728209934395502,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 153,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924186111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987364351851852
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.595229100230086
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.354

Log loss0.904

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003342366757000903,
  "shareRatio": 0.7433893316899324,
  "totalAfter": 11070,
  "shareBefore": 0.004499307798800185,
  "totalBefore": 8668,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "open" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.33% (-26%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "open" (6H). momentum contributed +0.68 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf37f149bf71f4a9409dcdf0a76f0cb9691926a821a7bde6f9ca600fa5f108d04

Previous hash96fa9ae1a80602b52876cfe7752be438248d12065c26e1e5864d34b6d5d107b6