Ledger / Prediction #218 · narrative · 1H

Will "method" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

68 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "method" (4 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.391510468911301,
      "momentum": 0.10839782672033926,
      "diversity": -0.8294117647058823
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3476231332100939
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "method",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03178294573643411,
    "share60": 0.028517901748542882,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 1.1144910315170033,
    "diversity": 0.058823529411764705,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 68,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99686
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3476231332100939
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.121

Log loss0.427

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0039904229848363925,
  "shareRatio": 0.14772068864114785,
  "totalAfter": 2506,
  "shareBefore": 0.028157349896480333,
  "totalBefore": 2415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "method" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.82% → 0.40% (-86%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "method" (1H). diversity contributed -0.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5ef72b725e85876b7889f5c6854a7e1306caff78f06c7de8417dfa16a68163c3

Previous hash426665e970cb4ef5b6761109f96e454b582ce5df9dea33f2e9965089ec038877