Ledger / Prediction #2175 · narrative · 6H

Will "miragelsd" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

80 of 1421 launches in the last hour referenced "miragelsd" (9 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4158883083359672,
      "momentum": -3.6145983630054204,
      "diversity": -0.7649999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "miragelsd",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.001524390243902439,
    "share60": 0.05661040787623066,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1421,
    "momentum": 0.026927738221481597,
    "diversity": 0.1125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 80,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992937962962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009497578117580017,
  "shareRatio": 0.016015590862216628,
  "totalAfter": 10529,
  "shareBefore": 0.008840864440078585,
  "totalBefore": 9162,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 81
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "miragelsd" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.88% → 0.01% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "miragelsd" (6H). momentum contributed -3.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1eeb719ce22a47eb5f2c97fd2d1133387be6275972818896d488912d2e2de39f

Previous hash74274fc569957d9e3b514dae21791a2878550204062b373a9d6e1c2582bbee5d