Ledger / Prediction #2172 · narrative · 1H

Will "night" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1421 launches in the last hour referenced "night" (5 distinct creators, rank #180). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

Made2026-10-12 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9310892708193281,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2827037773359841
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "night",
    "rank60": 180,
    "share15": 0.001524390243902439,
    "share60": 0.003867791842475387,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1421,
    "momentum": 0.3941241685144124,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957627777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2827037773359841
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.080

Log loss0.332

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007942811755361397,
  "shareRatio": 0.30930735930735936,
  "totalAfter": 1259,
  "shareBefore": 0.0035014005602240898,
  "totalBefore": 1428,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "night" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.08% (-77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "night" (1H). momentum contributed -0.93 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9121c0e07c8332b77bffb5fb65d9420722974b7458a76f06acc6d7c71157e5c3

Previous hashb80c9e6691121312bae04951dc3477224242d9c231f4a44f7f8bcf50726d0e2a