Will "launchpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "launchpad" (58 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": -0.3238303812822063,
      "diversity": 0.10869565217391298
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4696786414875445
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchpad",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.020930232558139535,
    "share60": 0.02893422148209825,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 0.7233729295633261,
    "diversity": 0.8405797101449275,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 58
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99686
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4696786414875445
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012769353551476457,
  "shareRatio": 0.45065184390182306,
  "totalAfter": 2506,
  "shareBefore": 0.02857142857142857,
  "totalBefore": 2415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity